Outlook to 2030 on global production of high-purity refined copper deployed in EV batteries and renewable energy systems, with an assessment of key players and projects.

Analysis

Manager, Clean Energy & Transport

Janire Riobello

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Batteries and renewable energy systems typically require high-purity copper (&gt;99.99% purity) produced from the electrorefining of smelted copper matte; while high-purity copper may be produced from different deposit types, copper sulfide ores are typically preferred over oxide ores as they tend to have a higher copper content. In batteries, high-purity copper is used in both the anode and the cathode in the form of copper foil and copper current collector coating, respectively, as well as in busbars and wiring systems. High-purity copper is also a key material for wind and solar energy systems, where it is deployed not only in electrical cabling but also in wind turbine generators and photovoltaic (PV) connectors and inverters.</div>
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<div>While Chile and Peru remain leaders in mined supply of copper, in recent years China has been growing exponentially to absorb increasing volumes of refined copper production in general, and of high-purity refined copper in particular &ndash; although the copper refining market currently shows much higher levels of geographical fragmentation than other segments of the global EV and cleantech supply chains. In 2022, Chinese supply accounted for over 28% of total high-purity copper supply, with Chile as the world&rsquo;s second-largest producer at a market share of 14%. Unlike other segments, Europe and North America are also well positioned in global high-purity copper refining, representing over 10% of total global supply respectively. Over the outlook to 2030, capacity additions remain marginal, with new players producing a negligible share of global supply. Chinese domestic production registers the strongest growth to supply over half of total global volumes by 2030.&nbsp;</div>
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This report is part of a series covering all segments of the EV and cleantech supply chain, and contains strategic insights on growth projections and production trends across major markets and 50+ players, outlining key investments which help shape estimates on annual supply through 2030.
Key takeaways:
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<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">Global supply of high-purity refined copper grows at a CAGR of 9% from 2022 to 2030, with the bulk of growth originating from China and Chinese-owned assets in Africa and Asia Pacific </li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">China strengthens its market position to supply over 55% of global high-purity refined copper volumes by 2030, significantly shrinking the current 72% share supplied currently by the rest of the world </li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The top producer of high-purity refined copper retains its market dominance, though China&rsquo;s top copper producers register the strongest growth overall </li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The penetration of smaller and new participants remains negligible as investment in new capacity remains extremely weak <img alt="Chart" height="281" width="473" src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/02242023-Copper_midstream.PNG" />&nbsp;</li>
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Subscribers&nbsp;can&nbsp;<a href="~/members/high-purity-copper-refining-market-assessment/2023-02-24t000000-0500" target="_self">access the full report</a>&nbsp;from Stratas Advisors'&nbsp;<a href="~/services/renewable---alternative-fuels/cleantech-and-battery-supply-chains" target="_self">CleanTech and Battery Supply Chain</a>&nbsp;service. 
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High-Purity Copper Refining Market Assessment

<ul>
 <li>Global supply of high-purity refined copper grows at a CAGR of 8.9% over 2022-2030, with the bulk of growth originating from China and Chinese-owned assets in Africa and Asia Pacific 
 
 </li>
 <li>China strengthens its market position to supply over 55% of global high-purity refined copper volumes by 2030, significantly shrinking the current 72% share supplied currently by the rest of the world 
 
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 <li>The top producer of high-purity refined copper retains its market dominance, though China&rsquo;s Jinchuan Group registers the strongest growth overall 
 
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 <li>The penetration of smaller and new participants remains negligible as investment in new capacity remains extremely weak</li>
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Batteries and renewable energy systems typically require high-purity copper (&gt;99.99% purity) produced from the electrorefining of smelted copper matte; while high-purity copper may be produced from different deposit types, copper sulfide ores are typically preferred over oxide ores as they tend to have a higher copper content. In batteries, high-purity copper is used in both the anode and the cathode in the form of copper foil and copper current collector coating, respectively, as well as in busbars and wiring systems. High-purity copper is also a key material for wind and solar energy systems, where it is deployed not only in electrical cabling but also in wind turbine generators and photovoltaic (PV) connectors and inverters.
High-purity copper amounts for a marginal 2% share of total refined copper supply, exceeding 520 KT in 2022 after experiencing a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. While Chile and Peru remain leaders in mined supply of copper, in recent years China has been growing exponentially to absorb increasing volumes of refined copper production in general, and of high-purity refined copper in particular &ndash; although the copper refining market currently shows much higher levels of geographical fragmentation than other segments of the global EV and cleantech supply chains. In 2022, Chinese supply accounted for 28.4% of total high-purity copper supply, with Chile as the world&rsquo;s second-largest producer at a market share of 14.1%. Unlike other segments, Europe and North America are also well positioned in global high-purity copper refining, representing 10.8% and 10.3% of total global supply respectively. High-purity copper refining grows at a CAGR of 8.9% from 2022 to 2030, significantly above the marginal 3.5% CAGR projected for mined copper production.
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Note: Total volumes and player estimates are based on existing and pending projects at an early or advanced development stage.
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Freeport-McMoran is currently the world&rsquo;s largest producer of high-purity refined copper at a market share of 16.6% with operations concentrated in the US, Chile, Peru, and Indonesia. Freeport&rsquo;s planned brownfield expansions at Morenci in Arizona (US) and Indonesia, operated together with Mitsubishi Materials, are expected to see Freeport&rsquo;s total volumes increase by 80% by 2030, although the company&rsquo;s market share sees a decline of 1.5 percentage points. In spite of this modest share loss, Freeport retains its market leadership throughout the entire decade.
Growth is more aggressive for Jinchuan Group, which is projected to register a net three-fold volume growth from 2022 to 2030 as the company expands its existing operations in Guangxi province in China, and adds a greenfield high-purity copper facility in Gansu province capable of producing up to 50 KT annually. Thanks to these expansions, Jinchuan sees significant market share gains from 5.3% in 2022 to 11.4% by 2030, becoming the world&rsquo;s second-largest producer of high-grade copper behind Freeport.
Unable to keep pace with Jinchuan&rsquo;s growth, a majority of top producers actually see modest market share losses despite net volume increases, including Codelco, Mitsubishi Minerals, LS Nikko, Jinlong, and Sumitomo. As a result, the market share of the world&rsquo;s seven major producers falls slightly from the current 50% to 48.8% in 2030.
Compared to other key materials, investment in copper production continues to perform anemically, with only a handful greenfield projects in the pipeline and few brownfield expansions planned. However, the high-purity copper output of most copper refineries, including planned capacity, continues to retain a marginal portion of total production, with refiners potentially maximizing high-purity output to respond to soaring demand from EVs, renewables expansion, and grid investments.
Besides Jinchuan, China Minmetals and Southern Copper Corporation remain the only major producers announcing new additions in China&rsquo;s Guangxi province and Mexico&rsquo;s Sonora state respectively. This allows Southern Copper to defend its current 1.2% market share throughout the entire decade, while China Minmetal&rsquo;s expansion results in a modest market share gain of 2.5 percentage points to reach a 5.1% share by 2030. Norilsk Nickel also plans to add new refined copper capacity at its Monchegorsk site in Russia&rsquo;s Murmansk Oblast, yet the aftermath of Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine could significantly delay project implementation.
Brownfield expansions are planned primarily in China and Africa, with DRC and Zambia registering a 6.5% and 2.9% CAGR respectively. However, China continues to increase its influence in the African continent, with China Nonferrous and China Molybdenum developing the only high-purity copper refining projects in DRC. As a result, Chinese-owned high-purity refined copper capacity around the world grows by over 65% from 2022 to 2030, supplying 41.4% of total global supply &ndash; up from 31.9% in 2022.
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Capacity expansions elsewhere remain marginal, with new players producing a negligible share of global supply. As Chinese domestic production grows, China&rsquo;s share grows to supply over half of total volumes by 2030, significantly shrinking the current 71.6% share supplied currently by the rest of the world. In addition to high-purity copper needed for different battery and cleantech applications, Chinese share of global supply of copper foil deployed in battery anodes also grows to 68.2% by 2030, further strengthening the country&rsquo;s market position along the entire copper value chain.