June 28, 2017

Asia: Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production

Stratas Advisors

This excerpt is from a report that is available to subscribers of Stratas Advisors’ Asia and Global Refining & Products services.

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Asia-Pacific refinery crude oil throughput in 2016 was 27.61 million b/d with a capacity utilization of 80%. Refinery input and production for 2014 and 2016, as well as projections through 2035, are summarized in the table below. Other refinery input includes biofuels, MTBE and coal-to-liquids/gas-to-liquids (CTL/GTL) products. The output includes these input streams in the LPG, naphtha, gasoline and diesel product volumes.

Asia-Pacific Refinery and Blender Input and Production (2014-2035)
(million b/d)

Refinery Input
  2014 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035
Crude Oil 25.75 27.61 29 31.62 33.44 35.69
Other(1) 0.56 0.66 0.85 1.03 1.11 1.21
Total Input 26.31 28.27 29.85 32.65 34.55 36.9
Production and Blending
  2014 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gasoline 6.01 7.07 7.21 7.7 8.02 8.56
Premium 0.42 0.5 0.51 0.55 0.57 0.61
Regular 5.59 6.57 6.7 7.16 7.45 7.95
Naphtha 2.78 3.31 3.58 3.65 3.76 3.85
Jet Fuel 2.15 2.22 2.36 2.68 2.98 3.29
Kerosene 0.54 0.44 0.43 0.4 0.38 0.35
Middle Distillate 9.53 9.47 10.13 11.69 12.6 13.47
       ≤10 ppm 1.43 1.89 3.54 4.67 5.67 6.74
     11 - 50 ppm 1.81 2.08 2.23 1.99 1.76 1.35
     51 - 500 ppm 1.91 1.7 1.01 1.17 1.26 1.35
     > 500 ppm 4.38 3.79 3.34 3.86 3.91 4.04
Heavy Fuel Oil 1.55 1.56 1.71 1.8 1.9 2.01
    Bunkers(3) 1.32 1.33 1.46 1.54 1.62 1.71
LPG 1.41 1.44 1.63 1.74 1.81 1.93
Asphalt 0.62 0.71 0.72 0.78 0.81 0.89
Petcoke 0.51 0.58 0.59 0.64 0.67 0.73
Base Lube Oils 0.2 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.29
Other(2) 2.08 2.39 2.44 2.63 2.74 3
Total Output 27.38 29.42 31.05 33.96 35.94 38.38

Notes:
(1)Includes NGL, biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel), blend components (MTBE, XTL) and unfinished oils (VGO, Residuum, etc.).
(2)Includes Refinery Gas, Unfinished Oil, Waxes, and White Spirits.
(3)Bunker Residual Fuel Oil specification from 2020 is 0.5% S wt/wt.

Source: Stratas Advisors 

About 77% of the 2016 output is made up of gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel, kerosene and middle distillate. Residual fuel accounts for 5% of refined product output. Increases in refinery crude oil throughput will be aggressive; it is projected to increase by 8.08 million b/d, or 29%, between 2016 and 2035. Light product (gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel, kerosene and middle distillate) share of the output will be maintained at 77%, and residual fuel will also remain stagnant at 5% by 2035.

The table below provides a breakdown of GTL/CTL and renewable fuels’ (biofuels) contribution to gasoline and middle distillate. The table shows refinery gasoline and middle distillate production (excluding biofuels additions), gasoline and middle distillate demand, specific biofuels use, and the percentages of biofuels included in Asia-Pacific gasoline and middle distillate. 

Renewable Fuels and GTL/CTL Supplies for Asia-Pacific Market (2014-2035) 
(million b/d)

ASIA-PACIFIC 2014 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035
Refinery Gasoline Production 5.93 6.97 7.1 7.56 7.86 8.36
     Renewable Fuels (Ethanol) 0.08 0.1 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.2
     GTL/CTL 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Gasoline Production and Blending 6.01 7.07 7.21 7.7 8.02 8.56
Refinery Middle Distillate Production 9.36 9.08 9.47 10.97 11.85 12.7
     Renewable Fuels (Biodiesel) 0.11 0.22 0.29 0.34 0.37 0.4
     GTL/CTL 0.06 0.17 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37
Total Middle Distillate Production and Blending 9.53 9.47 10.13 11.69 12.6 13.47
  2014 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gasoline Demand 5.97 6.9 8.08 9.27 10.42 11.79
Renewable Fuels in Gasoline 1.34% 1.40% 1.40% 1.53% 1.61% 1.69%
Middle Distillate Demand 8.81 8.96 10.2 11.75 13.27 14.95
Renewable Fuels in Middle Distillate 1.29% 2.48% 2.80% 2.88% 2.81% 2.69%


Source: Stratas Advisors

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