July 10, 2017

Projects with 6.3MM boe/d of New Build Capacity Expected to Reach First Production This Year

Stratas Advisors

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This excerpt is from a report that is available to subscribers of Stratas Advisors’ Global Hydrocarbon Supply and Global Upstream Project Analytics services.

New build production capacity from projects on stream in 2017 is reaching a peak. As figure 1 shows, more than 60 projects with a total new build capacity 6.3MM boe/d are expected to reach first production this year. The new build capacity was 4.9MM boe/d on 54 projects in 2016. Looking forward, 2018 will only see about 4.1MM boe/d of new capacity on 33 projects, and 3.6MM boe/d on 43 projects in 2019. The trend indicates that the gluts of projects sanctioned in the high-price era will be subdued after this year.    

 Among the projects starting in 2017, 52% of the total capacity is liquids production, down from 59% in 2016. The trend will continue as the liquids capacity will be 48% in 2018 and only 41% in 2019.

The Middle East is dominating on capacity new additions in 2017 with 1.5MM boe/d, where 70% (1MM boe/d) is oil. There are several large projects with capacities of more than 100 Mb/d coming online this year in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. South East Full Field Development, UZ250 and SARB projects, all three in the UAE, have combined oil production capacity of about 500 Mb/d. Saudi Arabia’s Khurais Expansion project will add 300 Mb/d capacity.

Latin America, mainly Brazil, will have four FPSOs in operation this year. Each FPSO has an oil production capacity of 150 Mb/d. Two of the floaters will be on the pre-salt Lula field (Lula Sul and Lula Norte), another in the Pre-salt Buzios field (Buzios 3), and the fourth in the Tartaruga Verde and Mestica developments.

Other notable oil projects coming online this year include the Hebron heavy oil project offshore Canada with 150 Mb/d, the Canadian oil sands mining project Fort Hills Phase 1 with a capacity of 160 Mb/d, the Schiehallion Quad 2014 project built with an FPSO with 130 Mb/d oil production capacity in the UK North Sea, Moho Nord project offshore Congo with an FPSO with a capacity of 100 Mb/d, and the Yurubcheno-tokhomskoye development onshore Russia with a new capacity of 100 Mb/d.

In Africa, 72% of the 1.2MM boe/d new build capacity is gas, driven by two major projects, the Zohr project in offshore Egypt with a capacity of 2.7 Bcf/d and the Touat project in onshore Algeria with a capacity of 425MM cf/d.

In Asia-Pacific, 80% of the 1.1 million boe/d new build capacity is gas. The boost of gas production mainly comes from two LNG projects: Ichthys (Australia) with 1.1 Bcf/d and Wheatstone (Australia) with 1.5 Bcf/d. The North Malay Basin Integrated Gas Development in Malyasia prodices 425 MMcf/d.

Other notable gas projects coming online this year include Yamal LNG in Russia with a capacity of 2.4 Bcf/d, the Khazzan tight gas project in Oman with a capacity of 1 Bcf/d, and the Juniper gas field development offshore Trinidad and Tobago with a capacity of 590 MMcf/d. 

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