Since our last update at the start of April (April 4) prices went on a bull run, and as of May 1, Brent and WTI had increased 4% and 2% respectively. A lot changed in barely a week though and it appears the bull run has finally cracked. As of this writing, Brent is only up 2% since April 4 and WTI is down 1%. Brent has seen slightly more support due to the international aspect of the latest developments.
Recent days have shown some signs of a moderation in prices, but absolute values remain above our most recent outlook, despite being directionally matched. The average price of Brent in April ($71.63/bbl) came in $4.52/bbl above our forecast ($67.11). On a quarterly basis, prices are also about $4/bbl above our forecast.
Current Price Outlook versus Actual
Several large developments are affecting prices and differentials and will remain front-of-mind for the rest of the month. Below we discuss the implications and potential outcomes of these developments.
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