July 16, 2019

Production Starts to Correct as Barry Leaves the Gulf

Stratas Advisors

Now that Hurricane Barry has left the Gulf of Mexico, it’s a warm welcoming feeling to see that personnel are re-boarding offshore platforms that were previously evacuated. As of July 15th, the BSEE (Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement) states that 16 platforms have been boarded since its previous report. In addition, we are witnessing a reduction in the oil and natural gas that has been previously shut-in. As of the latest report, oil production has dropped to 1.3 MMBbl per day (down 5% from peak shut-in) and gas has dropped to 1.6 Bcf/d (down ~2% from the peak). Stratas estimates current oil production that is shut-in represents 10.4% of U.S. oil production (down from 11% at the peak), while gas production represents 1.6% of Lower 48.

 Date Platforms Evac % GOM Rigs Evac % GOM DP Rigs Moved % GOM Oil S/I (MMBbl/d) % Gom Gas S/I (MMcf/d) % GOM
7/10/19 15 2.24 4 19.05 3 15.00 602 31.89 496 17.85
7/11/19 191  28.50 7 33.30 11 55.00 1,009 53.39 1,237 44.51
7/12/19  257 38.40 10 47.60 11 55.00 1,110 58.74 1,353 48.69
7/13/19  283 42.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,332 69.97 1,554 55.56
7/14/19  283 42.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,376 72.82 1,714 61.68
7/15/19  267 29.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,306 69.09 1,684 60.58

 While the increase in offshore personnel gains momentum, there is work still onshore. Local utilities are aggressively pursuing all efforts to restore power to local parishes. Entergy claims to have a workforce of over 4,000 restoring power to its customers. As of early morning on July 15th, the company states there are 31,000 customers without power, which is down from a high of 89,000. Some challenges remain in southern Louisiana due to high water, which the company continues to assess.

As of today, we have not yet heard of any production leaks coming from the gulf. It appears that the shut-in procedures were not affected by the hurricane. We will continue to monitor ongoing efforts by operators to reverse shut-in production and return the personnel to their platforms.

Want to See More? Login or Create a Account