July 21, 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on PADD 1 Gasoline Balance Outlook

Stratas Advisors

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This insight assesses the gasoline balance considering the impact of shutting down the Philadelphia PES refinery and COVID-19. It also covers PADD 1’s reliance on PADD 3 imports and how the trade flow will evolve.

The Philadelphia Energy Solutions' refinery (335 MBPD) shut down following a June 2019 fire, and will not return to operation. However, the St. Croix refinery (210 MBPD) is likely to restart by 2021. In this way it is expected that PADD 1 capacity will stabilize by 2021 at 1.1 MBPD.

PADD 1 Refining Capacity Chart

As the Philadelphia refinery shutdown took place in mid-2019, PADD 1 utilization rate dropped to 74%. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the utilization rate is expected to hover at 76%, considering the total PADD 1 refinery capacity of 0.9 MBPD. PADD 1, utilization is poised to reach a maximum of 85% by 2022, but will decline gradually to around 82% by 2030, due to declining gasoline demand.

PADD 1 Utilization Rate

PADD 1 had a gasoline deficit of 2.6 MBPD in 2019. The deficit is going to fall to 1.9 MBPD in 2020, increasing to 2.6 MBPD in 2022 and dropping slightly in the long term to 2.4 MBPD by 2030. Throughout the period PADD 1 would be reliant on PADD 3 for gasoline imports. PADD 3 will supply more than 75% of PADD 1 gasoline imports. The reliance on PADD 3 will increase going forward as PADD 1 backs out Europe and Canada imports.

PADD 1 Gasoline Balance Chart


Detailed analysis similar to this report is available to members of Global Refining & Products and North American Refining & Products. 
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