March 30, 2021

Global Transport Fuels Assessment: Supply and Demand in Argentina

Stratas Advisors

Subscribers can access the full profile from our Global Transport Fuels Assessment service and also here from our Global Octane Outlook service.
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Supply and Demand

As Argentina continues to struggle with historical financial and economic challenges, along with the long-term impact of the pandemic, we see a relatively flat demand outlook, considering that this market is part of a region that still has a young demographic profile, and therefore potential for oil demand growth. We see Argentina’s gasoline demand actually decreasing at a rate of -0.04% CAGR by 2030 (when compared to 2019) due to a reduction in vehicle ownership and miles traveled.

We see however that the expected economic growth will underpin the industrial and commercial sectors, and therefore will be translated into an uptick for diesel demand, which is expected to grow by 0.40% CAGR.

The country is net short for both gasoline and diesel. Argentina imports gasoline from the USGC and as more imports are needed over time, it is likely USGC refiners will remain the key supplier, with occasional volume arriving from the Netherlands. Diesel imports to Argentina arrive from the USGC as well, with Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal typically completing all diesel import requirements. Argentina exports diesel to Mexico. We see additional need for diesel volume over time, the country will need to compete with Chile for diesel imports to South America. 

In addition to the U.S. which is the country's primary fuel importer, there are a total of 14 source countries including:

  1. U.S.
  2. India
  3. Netherlands
  4. Switzerland
  5. Oman
  6. Singapore
  7. U.A.E.
  8. Belgium
  9. Brazil
  10. Bahrain
  11. Togo
  12. U.K.
  13. Uruguay
  14. Saudi Arabia

According to the Secretary of Energy, there are seven main fuel suppliers in Argentina, in addition to three other categories which include non-branded suppliers:

  1. YPF (main fuel supplier)
  2. Shell
  3. Axion
  4. Refiner
  5. Petrobras
  6. Oil Combustibles
  7. Puma

Gasoline Supply-Demand     

 

Source: Stratas Advisors

Diesel Supply-Demand                                                

Source: Stratas Advisors

Gasoline and Diesel Balance                             

Source: Stratas Advisors

As refinery closures continue amidst ongoing market conditions, Stratas Advisors understands the emerging role of imports to meet transport fuel demand, including country sources, the key import players and industry suppliers. Thus, Stratas Advisors offers current and forecasted trade flows of road gasoline and diesel fuel for more than 60 countries.

The full profile for Argentina and 60+ other markets are available in the Global Transport Fuels Assessment (GTFA) and Global Octane Outlook (GOO) services. Each profile contains an overview of transport fuels trends including:

  • Executive summary
  • Macro level factors
  • Fuel specifications
  • Biofuels
  • Vehicle fleet
  • Refining overview
  • Supply and demand
  • Demand by marketable grades
  • Fuel composition and properties
  • Retail market
  • Refinery and non-refinery blendstocks (GOO service only)

 


Subscribers can access the full profile from our Global Transport Fuels Assessment service and also here from our Global Octane Outlook service.
Not a subscriber? Create an account

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