Global production in Q4 2017 was about 76.6 MMb/d, a 370 Mb/d drop compared to Q3. Four of the world's seven geographical regions experienced production drops, led by the Middle East with about 140 Mb/d decline. North America produced nearly 360 Mb/d more oil in Q4 2017 than Q3 2017, mainly due to the shale production recovery in the US. Europe increased by around 240 Mb/d in Q4 2017, driven by UK and Norway.
Stratas Advisors, a global consulting and analytics provider, released its crude and condensate projections for Q1 2018.
Looking forward, global oil and condensate production in Q1 2018 will continue to increase by about 310 Mb/d.
North America OutlookNorth America crude oil and condensate production in 2017 Q4 reached 14 MMb/d, a 357 Mb/d increase compared to Q3. US contributed the majority of the production increase (333 Mb/d) as shale industry started to recover. Canada only saw a slight increase of 24 Mb/d.
Looking forward, total oil and condensate production in 2018 Q1 is expected to increase by 250 Mb/d in the region. US will see a growth of 200 Mb/d mainly from its shale operations. Canada is expecting a production increase of 27 Mb/d.
Oil production in Africa in Q4 2017 slightly increased by about Mb/d, to 8.2 MMb/d.
Looking forward, oil production in Q1 2018 is expected to remain flat.
Asia Pacific Outlook
Asia Pacific crude oil and condensate production dropped by 63 Mb/d in Q4 2017 compared to Q3, mostly due to a production decline in China (43 Mb/d drop).
Crude oil and condensate production in Q1 2018 is expected to increase by 106 Mb/d, as China and Malaysia are projected to raise production by 54 Mb/d and 44 Mb/d, respectively.
Europe's crude oil and condensate production in Q4 2017 increased by 240 Mb/d to 3.3 MMb/d. Both UK and Norway contributed to the increase.
Looking forward, oil and condensate production in Q1 2018 is expected to slightly drop, losing about 20 Mb/d in the region. UK and Norway production, never the less, will remain stable through this quarter.
Latin America Outlook
Latin America crude oil and condensate production in Q4 2017 was about 8.6 MMb/d, a slight decrease of 39 Mb/d compared to Q3. The decline is attributed to waning production in Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador.
Looking ahead, oil production in Q1 2018 is expected to further drop by 240 Mb/d in the region as crude production continues to decline in Venezuela and Mexico.
Middle East Outlook
The Middle East's crude oil and condensate production dropped by about 145 Mb/d to 28 MMb/d in Q4 2017, driven by Iraq and Iran as those two countries dropped about 115 Mb/d.
Q1 2018 will see the region increase output by about 130 Mb/d, driven by a production ramp up in Iraq, Iran and Qatar, which have lost their respective cut quota.
Russia & CIS Outlook
Russia & CIS crude oil and condensate production was at 13.7 MMb/d in 2017 Q4, a 10 Mb/d decrease compared to Q3. Russia, participating in the production cut deal with OPEC, reduced about 50 Mb/d of crude output in Q4.
Oil production in Q1 2018 is expected to increase by about 130 Mb/d as Russia and Kazakhstan are projected to ramp up crude output.
For more information, contact Shu Feng, the director of Stratas Advisors' Global Upstream Project Analytics service. 713-260-6426.
About Stratas Advisors
Stratas Advisors, a Hart Energy company, is a leading global consulting and analytics provider for upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and related sectors, such as automotive; transportation; power; petrochemicals and heavy industries. Stratas Advisors' team of experts provides data and strategic insights to companies seeking to understand key drivers shaping development. Stratas Advisors' consultants and analysts offer forward-looking perspectives to help energy decision makers leverage opportunities, mitigate risk and implement strategies. Stratas Advisors is headquartered in Houston with offices in Brussels and Singapore.