Global Biofuels Outlook Forecasts Through 2035
Houston, TX (March 17, 2016) – Like government leaders around the world, candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign have pandered to opposing constituencies surrounding the future of biofuels, agricultural versus petroleum, environmentalists versus industrialists. However, refiners, automakers, governments and investors want a realistic view of how biofuel consumption will evolve in the coming years. Stratas Advisors’ Global Biofuels Outlook is a regional and country-level forecast through 2035 of policy, prices, supply and demand. This forecast has a globally-balanced assessment from Stratas Advisors’ petroleum and alternative fuels services.
The Global Biofuels Outlook shows global ethanol usage expanding the gasoline pool by nearly 9 percent and biodiesel usage expanding the diesel pool to 3 percent by 2035.
“Automakers should ready themselves for higher biodiesel blends. Biodiesel use will increasingly displace diesel use in first-world nations,” said Paul Niznik, Stratas Advisors, Biofuels Manager. “But despite high targets for biofuels use, developed nations will struggle to increase ethanol blending.”
Stratas Advisors expects global ethanol demand to increase gradually between 2015 and 2035. Growth will be driven by strong demand in Latin America and Asia. Latin America will become the largest ethanol producing and consuming region by 2030. North America and Europe will see a decline in the same timeframe.
As for the global biodiesel demand – it is predicted to almost double between 2015 and 2035 on strong growth in all regions except Europe. Stratas Advisors forecasts that Asia-Pacific will become the largest biodiesel producing and consuming region by 2025. Biodiesel exports from Asia, with a small contribution from Latin America, will meet demand in Europe and North America.
“Biofuels prices in the short term will need to recover to help global producers stay solvent and meet demand in an increasingly challenging international market,” said Maëlle Soares Pinto, Stratas Advisors Director, Global Biofuels.
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Maëlle Soares Pinto, Director, Global Biofuels Assessment and Global Alternative Fuels - Based in Singapore
Maëlle Soares Pinto is an internationally recognized expert on alternative fuels and biofuel markets and policies. She directs global research and special projects for the Global Biofuels Assessment, Global Alternative Fuels and the Global Biofuels Outlook. She speaks five languages and has advised multi-national companies, NGOs and governments in Europe, Asia and the Americas on their biofuels strategies. She earned master’s degrees in process integration and environmental technology from the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology, U.K., and her bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Industries, Chimiques, France.
Paul Niznik, Biofuels Manager - Based in Houston, Texas
Paul Niznik offers his expertise of biofuels policy, markets and technology. He is among the industry’s leading authorities on markets affected by the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and Renewable Identification Numbers. He is the lead author of Stratas Advisors’ quarterly Biofuels Market & Policy Report - North America and has been a contributing author to the U.S. & Brazil Ethanol Outlook to 2022 and the annual Global Biofuels Outlook. His clients represent a cross-section of the auto, petroleum and biofuels sectors and government agencies (USDA, DOE, NRCan). Niznik has been cited by The New York Times, Houston Chronicle and other mainstream and trade publications. Niznik has a bachelor’s degree in astrophysics from Yale University.
About Stratas Advisors
Stratas Advisors is a global consulting and advisory firm covering the full spectrum of the
energy market — upstream, midstream and downstream — and related sectors, such as automotive, transportation, power, petrochemicals and heavy industries. The company also evaluates and assesses the impact of macro-level drivers including geopolitics, macro-economics and energy policies. Experienced Stratas analysts and consultants provide data, analysis and strategic insights to leading businesses, governments and institutions to identify, understand and monitor key drivers that shape future developments. This forward-looking perspective helps clients leverage opportunities, mitigate risks and implement strategies. Stratas Advisors, a Hart Energy company, is based in Houston, Texas and has offices in Brussels and Singapore. For information, visit StratasAdvisors.com.