Stratas Advisors' Energy Demand Model Projects Global CO2 Emissions to Grow Another 5-6 Percent by 2025

HOUSTON, Nov. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Modeling of energy markets, transportation, and macroeconomic conditions by energy consulting firm Stratas Advisors shows global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy-related sources are likely to increase by an average of 280 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent annually from 2018 to 2025. This is much lower than recent estimates of GHG emissions growth for the year 2018 (about 600-900 million tonnes), but still represents a strong acceleration over several recent years (2014-2016). In which global CO2 emissions had been relatively stable.

The anticipated GHG emissions growth comes at an inopportune time with respect to efforts to combat climate change. Many observers, including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), see a need for global GHG emissions to peak in 2020 to meet targets set under the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst potential impacts of climate change.

In order to shift from Stratas Advisors' projected GHG emissions baseline to a trajectory consistent with the Paris Agreement target, global emissions growth would need to be drastically reversed, from a net increase of 2 billion tonnes by 2025 to roughly a net decrease of 2 billion tonnes. Accomplishing this would be an incredibly tall order, equivalent to replacing 100% of coal demand in developed countries and about 6-7% of coal demand in emerging markets and developing countries with renewables and/or nuclear power by 2025. To replace all of the coal-fired power generation in the US using wind power, the largest US wind farm (Alta Wind Energy Center in California) would need to be replicated around 200 times — and have sufficient wind to consistently run at close to full capacity during peak load hours.

Alternatively, the global emissions decline could be achieved by replacing 100% of coal demand in developed countries and more than 40% of coal demand in the rest of the world with natural gas, which has roughly 50% of the CO2 emissions of coal. To remain on the necessary emissions-reduction trajectory after 2025, however, that natural gas would subsequently need to start being replaced by renewables, and a similar level of effort to reduce emissions would need to be sustained for decades.

Stratas Advisors estimates 2018 energy-related GHG emissions (including biomass) at around 36.0 GtCO2e, and expects this to grow by 5.5% to 38.0 GtCO2e in 2025. This projection includes a notable acceleration in emissions growth in the years 2021-2025, due to higher projected economic growth in emerging markets, including India, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and CIS. 

Over the long term, Stratas Advisors' baseline projection shows global annual energy-related GHG emissions continuing to rise — though at a slower pace starting around 2030 — reaching about 43 GtCO2e by 2050. This emissions track is roughly consistent with a temperature rise of 3-5 degrees Celsius by 2100, well in excess of the Paris Agreement target.

The two models Stratas Advisors used to develop its GHG emissions outlook are both available for license to clients. The first model is the Automotive Interactive Model (AIM), which forecasts light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle sales and fleet volumes by powertrain using projections of total cost of ownership, regulatory incentives, scrappage curves and major macro-level drivers at the country level.  The outputs from the AIM model along with other macro-level drivers are used in the Energy Demand Model, which forecasts global energy demand for 38 energy types at the sector-level within countries (120 countries broken out, each further subdivided into 21 economic sectors). The model uses statistical relationships between key drivers and sector-level energy demand, along with price relationships and regulatory constraints, to create a comprehensive energy consumption forecast. Vehicle outputs from the AIM model are also used to forecast demand in the road sector, along with fuel demand modeling broken down for 20 light- and heavy-duty vehicle types. Both models include Stratas Advisors' baseline assumptions and forecasts, and are highly customizable. For more information, contact Stratas Advisors.

About Stratas Advisors

Stratas Advisors, a Hart Energy company, is a leading global consulting and analytics provider to the world's fullstream energy industry across the upstream, midstream and downstream energy markets and key consuming sectors including automotive; transportation; power; petrochemicals; and heavy industries. The consulting advisory firm's team of experts provides forecasts and strategic insights to clients seeking to make better business decisions by anticipating key drivers shaping development. Via consulting engagements and subscription services, the firm's clientele rapidly assess opportunities, mitigate risk and implement strategies. Stratas Advisors is based in Houston with offices in Brussels and Singapore.

Eric Lundin
Stratas Advisors