The Difficult Art of Recounting – Oil Markets Being Impacted By Additional Variables

Members of our Short-Term Outlook can read the detailed analysis: READ THE REPORT

One of the most important elements for providing an accurate oil markets outlook is related to above-ground risks, which take into consideration variables such as regulatory changes, social responses and geopolitical developments. And these variables are usually the ones that derail mathematical relationships that are based on concise, historical data. So proper market forecasting is a balance between accurate calculations and the appropriate assessment of the above-ground risks.

This caveat for oil market forecasting has never been more truthful than during 2020, when social responses to the pandemic impact both market fundamentals and perceptions, which in turn influence the price of crude oil. And as 2020 progressed, some large entities have missed how the evolution of the pandemic would impact oil prices. Oil forecasts need to be constantly updated to acknowledge for misjudging key factors, similar to what OPEC and other entities have been doing recently: recounting barrels given new evidence and trying to identify the most likely path forward... 


Members of our Short-Term Outlook can read the detailed analysis: READ THE REPORT

This weekly report is an excerpt from our Short-Term Outlook service analysis, which covers a period of eight quarters and provides monthly forecasts for crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined products, base petrochemicals and biofuels.  Contact Jaime Brito (+1.713-377-0706 or E-mail) for the detailed analysis or for more information about the Short Term Outlook.
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