March 26, 2019

Russia-CIS Refinery Project Investment Update - 2019

Stratas Advisors

There are three announced grassroots refinery projects in the Russia-CIS region. About $22 billion USD in refinery investment is expected in the region during next six years. About 714 thousand bpd of CDU capacity will be added in addition to 1.4 million bpd of secondary processing capacity. The secondary processing capacity includes Reformer/Alkylate (9%), Conversion (67%), and Hydrotreating (24%).

The information in the table below includes the region’s annual addition of capacity and respective investments.

Units | MBPD

Year

CDU

Light Oil Processing Unit

Conversion Unit

Hydroprocessing

Unit

Investment
($ billion)

2019

10

0

60

0

1.4

2020

286

74

499

145

7

2021

30

35

280

103

4

2022

178

13

50

40

2.7

2023

0

0

0

0

0

2024

10

0

0

0

0.4

2025

200

0

60

50

6

Source: Stratas Advisors

 

The information in tables below include the region’s major announced grassroots refinery investment projects

 

Units | MBPD

Country

Refinery Name

Company

Location

Capacity

Expected Completion

Probability

Tajikistan

Danghara Refinery

Tajikistan govt.

Danghara

10

2024

Low

Kazakhstan

Mangistau Refinery

KazMunaiGaz

Western Mangistau

200

2025

High

Uzbekistan

Jizzakh Refinery

Jizzakh Petroleum JV LLC

Jizzakh

100

2022

Medium

The information in tables below include the Russia-CIS region’s major announced refinery investment projects.

Units | MBPD

Country

Refinery Name

Company

Location

Capacity

Expected Completion

Probability

Project type

Russia

Novokuibyshev Refinery

Rosneft

Samara

 

2020

High

Modernization

Kazakhstan

Shymkent Refinery

PetroKazakhstan / KazMunaiGaz

Shymkent

 

2019

High

Modernization

Russia

Afipsky Refinery

NefteGazIndustria Group

Afipsky

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Salavat Refinery

Gazprom

Salavat

 

2021

High

Modernization

Russia

Ksotovo Refinery

Lukoil

Kstovo

 

2021

High

Modernization

Belarus

Mozyr Refinery

SLAVNEFT & Government of republic of Belarus

Mozyr

 

2020

High

Modernization

Belarus

Novopolotsk Refinery

P.O. Naftan Refinery

Novopolotsk

 

2019

High

Modernization

Russia

Mari El Refinery

New Stream Group

Tabashino

25 to 140

2020

High

Expansion

Russia

Taneco Refinery

Tatneft

Nizhnekamsk

180 to 230

2020

High

Expansion

Russia

Omsk Refinery

Gazprom Neft

Omsk

 

2021

High

Modernization

Russia

Ilsky Refinery

Kuban Oil and Gas Company

Ilsky

54 to 132

2022

High

Expansion

Azerbaijan

Heydar Aliyev Refinery

SOCAR

Baku

121 to 151

2021

High

Expansion

Russia

TAIFNK Refinery

TAIF-NK PSC

Nizhnekamsk

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Tuapse Refinery

Rosneft

Tuapse

 

2021

High

Modernization

Russia

Orsk Refinery

JSC ForteInvest

Orsk

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Novoil Refinery

Bashneftekhimzavody

Ufa

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

UNPZ Refinery

Bashneftekhimzavody

Ufa

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Ufaneftekhim Refinery

Bashneftekhimzavody

Ufa

 

2020

Medium

Modernization

Russia

Ryazan Refinery

Rosneft

Ryazan

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Ust-LugaCondensate  Refinery

Novatek

Ust-Luga

 

2020

High

Modernization

Russia

Moscow Refinery

Gazprom Neft

Moscow

243 to 364

2020

High

Expansion

Turkmenistan

Turkmenbashi Refinery

Turkmenneftegaz

Turkmenbashi

 

2021

High

Modernization

Russia

Slavyansky Refinery

Slaviansk ECO

Krasndor

60 to 70

2019

Medium

Expansion

Source: Stratas Advisors

 

The allowed sulfur content in gasoline pool is 10 ppm in Russia, 50 ppm in Kazakhstan, 500 ppm in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2019. 
In the Russia-CIS region the gasoline demand will be 1,172 thousand bpd in 2019 and increasing to 1,495 thousand bpd in 2040. The diesel demand is 976 thousand bpd in 2019 and increasing to 1,033 thousand bpd in 2040.

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