March 26, 2019

Global xEV New Registrations Overview - 1Q2019

Through 2020, electric vehicles (xEVs) – principally battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid gasoline vehicles – will continue to gain ground in new registrations. Last year saw near universal growth in xEV new registrations as consumers’ interest continued to grow and governments around the world strengthened their commitment to meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction agreements. Only Japan, Belgium, and Switzerland saw year-over-year declines in xEV registrations, giving back 6.2%, 11.4%, and 16.2%, respectively, though in relatively small numbers of units. Globally, xEV new registrations were up 79.4% year-over-year, to 1.94 million xEVs in 2018.

Country

2017

2018

2019F

2020F

2018

2019F

2020F

Yr Total

Yr Total

yoy %

Yr Total

yoy %

Yr Total

yoy %

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

Canada

18,611

44,330

138.2%

55,803

25.9%

65,613

17.6%

7,731

14,742

12,115

9,742

13,361

15,528

14,068

12,846

14,338

18,840

17,006

15,429

United States

194,603

350,257

80.0%

521,368

48.9%

696,369

33.6%

53,365

64,965

106,064

125,863

122,064

139,802

136,069

123,433

166,965

182,710

180,841

165,853

Australia

144

216

50.0%

279

29.0%

335

20.3%

54

48

56

58

58

81

67

73

96

81

86

73

China

527,405

1,077,361

104.3%

1,667,947

54.8%

2,172,768

30.3%

126,896

231,749

262,503

456,213

335,367

405,657

438,242

488,682

419,339

548,625

580,980

623,825

Japan

48,896

45,875

-6.2%

46,944

2.3%

48,451

3.2%

16,445

8,257

11,989

9,184

14,507

10,525

11,285

10,627

15,150

10,874

11,699

10,728

New Zealand

2,691

4,033

49.9%

4,704

16.6%

5,023

6.8%

902

999

908

1,224

1,178

1,180

1,105

1,241

1,273

1,165

1,173

1,411

Korea

13,316

33,590

152.3%

62,214

85.2%

93,534

50.3%

3,861

7,729

8,884

13,116

11,023

17,505

17,654

16,033

21,207

29,901

22,955

19,471

Austria

7,198

21,510

198.8%

41,420

92.6%

60,879

47.0%

2,259

2,274

6,812

10,165

9,745

9,235

11,806

10,634

14,695

14,288

16,063

15,834

Belgium

14,780

13,091

-11.4%

15,300

16.9%

16,373

7.0%

3,906

3,504

3,083

2,598

4,171

4,223

3,548

3,358

4,472

4,520

3,904

3,477

Denmark

1,171

2,670

128.0%

1,719

-35.6%

1,535

-10.7%

306

950

1,065

349

453

420

423

423

415

393

366

361

Finland

2,862

4,471

56.2%

6,397

43.1%

7,478

16.9%

991

1,575

993

912

1,501

1,774

1,560

1,562

1,712

2,058

1,847

1,861

France

40,435

50,878

25.8%

57,755

13.5%

63,807

10.5%

12,580

12,919

10,315

15,064

15,160

14,227

12,747

15,622

17,634

15,606

14,094

16,473

Germany

49,907

71,970

44.2%

87,662

21.8%

98,615

12.5%

16,992

15,733

18,254

20,991

20,716

22,611

21,139

23,197

23,550

24,392

24,296

26,377

Ireland

974

1,305

34.0%

1,586

21.5%

1,784

12.5%

309

254

664

78

576

366

467

177

638

393

562

192

Italy

4,544

10,735

136.2%

14,638

36.4%

17,498

19.5%

2,219

2,881

2,837

2,798

3,887

3,973

3,243

3,534

4,506

4,874

3,938

4,180

Netherlands

9,122

27,608

202.7%

44,511

61.2%

53,601

20.4%

4,786

4,708

6,185

11,929

8,790

9,681

10,137

15,904

10,876

12,461

12,934

17,330

Norway

61,092

71,746

17.4%

84,827

18.2%

93,744

10.5%

15,193

19,500

16,231

20,822

20,191

21,923

20,372

22,342

22,163

23,523

22,135

25,923

Portugal

4,039

7,074

75.1%

9,330

31.9%

11,277

20.9%

1,502

2,131

1,160

2,281

2,377

2,573

1,940

2,439

2,714

2,942

2,360

3,261

Spain

6,687

9,579

43.2%

12,208

27.4%

14,590

19.5%

2,047

2,694

1,978

2,860

2,687

3,042

2,877

3,602

3,413

3,629

3,338

4,210

Sweden

19,975

27,859

39.5%

36,337

30.4%

44,852

23.4%

6,545

6,928

6,922

7,464

9,278

9,586

8,471

9,002

11,535

12,011

10,247

11,059

Switzerland

5,878

4,926

-16.2%

5,783

17.4%

6,203

7.3%

1,574

1,396

947

1,009

1,625

1,413

1,293

1,452

1,574

1,601

1,407

1,622

UK

48,323

61,056

26.3%

65,988

8.1%

70,771

7.2%

14,481

15,277

15,692

15,606

17,305

16,097

16,266

16,320

18,815

17,155

17,552

17,249

Source: Stratas Advisors, Bloomberg

China continues to lead the way in global xEV adoption, boasting the highest global new registrations by threefold in 2019 and 2020. Stratas Advisors forecasts new xEV registrations in 2019 to total 1.67 million units (+54.8% year over year). On the back of a wide variety of homegrown models, a burgeoning import market, and strong governmental policy to incentivize purchases, Chinese xEVs will continue to expand in 2020. China is expected to surpass the 2 million unit mark, reaching 2.17 million new xEV units, a growth of 30.3% from 2019 levels.

Following China, the United States has the second largest xEV market by a wide margin. In 2019, new registrations are forecast to grow to 521.4 thousand, up 48.9% from 2018. Expanded battery range and electrified models available from nearly all automotive companies offers consumers increasingly attractive xEV options. Policy incentivizing xEV purchases at the federal and state level, plus local level benefits, will be a boon for 2020 new registrations. In 2020, it is expected that xEV new registrations will pick up 33.96% over 2019, reaching 696.4 thousand units.

Germany leads Europe in xEV adoption. Growing rapidly from 2017 to 2018, xEV new registrations will fully double by 2020, reaching 98.6 thousand units. The United Kingdom has shown steady xEV growth in recent years, expanding by 26.3% year over year in 2018, and it is expected to continue growth through 2020, though growth is expected to taper due to Brexit and economic uncertainty. In 2020, 70.8 thousand units are expected to be registered in the UK. Stratas Advisors forecasts Belgium’s xEV market to bounce back in 2019 from contraction last year. Belgium is expected to have 15.3 thousand (+16.9%) and 16.4 thousand (+7.0%) in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Norway will continue to be a prominent adopter of xEV vehicles. Noted for early mass adoption, and an encouraging set of governmental policies, Norway’s year-over-year growth is slower than many other countries, but its volume shows a stable xEV market domestically. In 2019, Norway is expected to continue to grow, reaching 84.8 thousand (+18.2%), and continue to grow in 2020, expanding to 93.7 thousand units (+10.5%). Policy continuity and investment in charging infrastructure makes an xEV an attractive purchase choice for Norwegians.

South Korea is forecast to adopt xEVs at scale through 2020. In 2018, 33.6 thousand were registered, year-over-year growth of 152.3%. This growth story is expected to continue, though at lower pace. In 2019, the South Korean market will expand 85.2%, up to 62.2 thousand units, and continue in 2020. An additional 93.5 thousand xEV units are forecast to come into the South Korean fleet, growth of 50.3% from 2019. Continued incentives and economic strength, combined with regional stability, will bolster the South Korean market for electrification.


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