July 17, 2019

Stratas Estimates Nearly 340 MBbl Per Day Impacted by Barry in the Gulf

Stratas Advisors

In our final installment of the effects of Hurricane Barry, we reiterate our initial expectation that operations will return to normal in approximately two weeks. As of July 16th, the BSEE (Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement) reported that 96 platforms (112 from the peak) have been boarded since its previous report. In addition, reductions in the volumes of oil and gas shut-ins continues to decline. Oil shut-ins dropped to 1.09 MMBbl per day (down 20% from peak shut-in). Meanwhile, gas dropped to 1.43 Bcf/d (down 16% from the peak). Stratas estimates oil shut-ins now represent 8.7% of U.S. oil production (down from 11% at the peak), while gas shut-ins represent a scant 1.4% of Lwr-48 production.

 Date Platforms Evac % GOM Rigs Evac % GOM DP Rigs Moved % GOM Oil S/I (MMBbl/d) % Gom Gas S/I (MMcf/d) % GOM
7/10/19 15 2.24 4 19.05 3 15.00 602 31.89 496 17.85
7/11/19 191  28.50 7 33.30 11 55.00 1,009 53.39 1,237 44.51
7/12/19  257 38.40 10 47.60 11 55.00 1,110 58.74 1,353 48.69
7/13/19  283 42.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,332 69.97 1,554 55.56
7/14/19  283 42.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,376 72.82 1,714 61.68
7/15/19  267 29.30 10 47.60 - 0.00 1,306 69.09 1,684 60.58
7/16/19  171 25.56 6 28.57 - 0.00 1,093 57.83 1,429 51.42

Source: BSEE

Redeployment of offshore personnel continues to gain momentum and onshore activities are quickly ramping up. Local utilities are continuing to restore power to local parishes. Entergy indicated less than 6,000 customers remain without power, down from a high of 89,000. Some challenges remain in southern Louisiana due to high water, which the company continues to assess.

 

As of today, there are no reports of production leaks in the gulf. In closing, Barry levied a hit of about 340 MBbl/d to Stratas’ oil forecast for July. While shale remains the primary driver of growth in U.S. production, the GOM remains an important contributor. As a reminder, Barry barely reached hurricane status. A more powerful storm could have more lasting effects. Hence, Stratas will continue to monitor tropical activity throughout the Atlantic hurricane season.

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