Crude oil prices have continued to disappoint through August, with all major markers swinging sharply lower. Physical fundamentals now present a mixed-bag, a deterioration from the bullish picture seen earlier this year. Visible crude oil stocks in the OECD and floating in VLCCs have started to increase despite higher year-on-year refining runs. Technical indicators, especially those tracking momentum, don’t appear to be signaling a shift in direction and are instead indicating that this downward drift could continue.
Current Price Outlook versus Actual
Recent days have shown flickers of strength, but absolute values remain below our most recent outlook. The average price of Brent so far this month ($59.32/bbl) came in $9.44/bbl below our forecast ($68.76).
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