August 28, 2019

August Crude Oil Price Update

Crude oil prices have continued to disappoint through August, with all major markers swinging sharply lower. Physical fundamentals now present a mixed-bag, a deterioration from the bullish picture seen earlier this year. Visible crude oil stocks in the OECD and floating in VLCCs have started to increase despite higher year-on-year refining runs. Technical indicators, especially those tracking momentum, don’t appear to be signaling a shift in direction and are instead indicating that this downward drift could continue.

Current Price Outlook versus Actual

August 2019 price actuals versus forecasts

With only a couple of days left in the month, prices are going to come in below our expectations. Recent days have shown flickers of strength, but absolute values remain below our most recent outlook. The average price of Brent so far this month ($59.32/bbl) came in $9.44/bbl below our forecast ($68.76).

The rest of this report is a available to subscribers of our Short-Term Outlook Service. Not a subscriber? Create an account
Sign-Up for Email Alerts