October 21, 2019

Global Refined Products Demand Assessment

Global Total Product demand grew this year, albeit growth has been at a slower pace than in 2018. Non-OECD demand growth is keeping pace with 2018’s demand growth rate. OECD demand year-to-date has contracted after growing in 2018 – a major reason for the slower global demand growth rate.  Africa, Asia, CIS, and North America have all recorded growth this year-to-date. However, in Europe, Latin America, and Middle East regions, refined product demand is shrinking. The Middle East and Europe are contracting more than it did in 2018, while Latin America has so far contracted less than it did in 2018.


Regional Refined Products Demand

2018 Demand 2019 YTD Demand
YoY (mb/d) YoY (%) YoY (mb/d) YoY (%)
Global 1,092 1.1% 465 0.5%
OECD 185 0.4% -373 -0.8%
Non-OECD 907 1.8% 838 1.6%
Africa -8 -0.2% 50 1.2%
Asia 745 2.2% 433 1.2%
CIS 163 3.6% 130 2.8%
Europe -110 -0.7% -131 -0.9%
Latin America -177 -2.0% -44 -0.5%
Middle East -40 -0.5% -79 -1.0%
North America 528 2.3% 95 0.4%

Year to date (YTD) encompasses Jan-Jun; YoY denotes Year-on-Year

Country-Level Dynamics

 

  • China and Russia account for the majority of the increase in gasoline demand this year. From the latest available data from January to June, China recorded demand grew by 5.7% year-on-year during the same period last year. In China, refinery investments and expansions have added gasoline yields and, therefore, gasoline exports. China exported 13% more of gasoline third quarter this year compared to the same period last year, according to Thomson Reuters customs data. Although published export data are incomplete, Chinese gasoline shipments are likely heading to gasoline importers such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and even Mexico

Major Country Gasoline Demand   Major Country Diesel Demand

2018 Demand 2019 YTD Demand 2018 Demand 2019 YTD Demand
YoY (mb/d) YoY (%) YoY (mb/d) YoY (%) YoY (mb/d) YoY (%) YoY (mb/d) YoY (%)
Brazil 313 -1.5% 8 1.2% Brazil 507 6.9% 25 2.8%
China 2,951 3.0% 164 5.7% China 3,121 -4.9% -205 -6.6%
Germany 496 16.0% -11 -2.1% Germany 1,068 -5.7% 44 4.2%
India 636 8.3% 18 2.9% India 1,701 4.4% 44 2.5%
Japan 878 -0.6% -31 -3.6% Japan 782 -0.2% -10 -1.3%
Mexico 757 -1.9% -10 -1.3% Mexico 407 4.2% -31 -7.4%
Russia 808 3.0% 54 7.2% Russia 478 -11.4% 66 15.9%
Saudi Arabia 561 -6.4% -11 -2.0% Saudi Arabia 522 -11.7% -23 -4.4%
UK 285 -0.7% 1 0.3% UK 673 2.9% -17 -2.6%
US 9,315 0.0% 27 0.3% US 4,144 5.4% -17 -0.4%

Year to date (YTD) encompasses Jan-Jun ; YoY denotes Year-on-Year

Year-on-Year Country Level Demand 

Source: Stratas Advisors, Jodi, EIA

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