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February 12, 2023

Upstream Manganese Market Assessment

Stratas Advisors

 

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Global manganese production registered a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in 2022, although growth is expected to be more contained in 2023. In 2022, South Africa alone held a market share of about 30% of the global total, with the rest of Africa currently producing an additional 31% of global supply. With no big expansions planned in the medium term however, South African manganese ore supply is projected to remain relatively stable over the outlook to 2030 – instead, growth accelerates in Gabon, Angola, Zambia, and Botswana, primarily driven by brownfield expansions. Outside of Africa, greenfield projects expand mainly in Australia and Brazil.
 
China does not see domestic volumes increase over the outlook to 2030. China currently produces about 11% of global manganese ore volumes domestically, with an additional 9% coming from overseas operations owned by Chinese-owned players. By 2030, Chinese-owned manganese ore volumes grow by 30%, though this only allows Chinese assets to partially defend their current market share, in fact failing to witness any major gains.

 
This report is part of a series covering all segments of the EV supply chain, and contains strategic insights on growth projections and production trends across major markets and 40+ players, outlining key investments which help shape estimates on annual supply through 2030.
 
Key takeaways:
 
  • Global mine production of manganese grows at a CAGR of 3.7% over 2022-2030, with significant growth originating mainly from Southern Africa

  • Over 50% of the upstream manganese market is currently dominated by four players with operations mainly concentrated in Southern Africa, West Africa, and Australia

  • Eramet is expected to outgrow South32 as the global market leader by the mid-2020s thanks to expansions in Gabon

  • The upstream manganese industry sees a very limited penetration of new entrants, with the top four defending their market share throughout the entire decade
 


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