Outlook to 2030 on global mined production of natural graphite with an assessment of key players and production trends.

Analysis

Manager, Clean Energy & Transport

Janire Riobello

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<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">Global production of natural graphite grew marginally in 2022, though the full-year projection for 2023 anticipates a stronger increase of 4.3% year-on-year. China currently accounts for over a third of the global upstream natural graphite market; however, China has lost significant market share in recent years following the commissioning of large-scale graphite mines elsewhere, especially in Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Australia. Commissioned in 2019, the Balama mine in Mozambique constitutes the single largest natural graphite operation in the world, with owner Syrah Resources providing for over 21% of global supply in 2022. Tanzania&rsquo;s largest operating asset is located at Lindi, with owner Magnis Energy accounting for over 13% of global production. Aoyu and China Graphite Group currently supply a combined 14.5% of global natural graphite through their operations in Heliongjiang province in Northeastern China, where China Minmetals also operates.</div>
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<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">With graphite demand expected to grow exponentially for the production of active anode material, the upstream market shows strong fragmentation in the coming years, with supply strongly shifting away from the historical dominance of China. In fact, natural graphite additions in China are exclusively attributable to the Bayannur greenfield mine in Inner Mongolia. In contrast, Southern Africa is on track to become the world&rsquo;s leader in natural graphite production absorbing almost half of total volumes produced globally, with Tanzania leading at a market share of 17.2%. While graphite supply may remain tight in the medium term, large-scale projects are expected to reach their full capacity by 2030 and beyond, potentially alleviating supply shortage risks and slightly pushing down upward pricing trends. With over half of global synthetic graphite production currently produced in China, the development of graphite mining projects elsewhere also denotes a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage, reflecting both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations versus its synthetic counterpart. Notably, and unlike most other battery material markets, the graphite industry is expected to be more successful in diversifying away from China; in fact, China&rsquo;s natural graphite upstream industry sees a significant decline in market share from about 34% in 2022 to roughly 17% by 2030.</div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">&nbsp;</div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">This report is part of a series covering all segments of the EV supply chain, and contains strategic insights on growth projections and production trends across major markets and 50+ players, outlining key investments which help shape estimates on annual supply through 2030.</div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">&nbsp;</div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript"><strong>Key takeaways:</strong></div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></div>
<ul>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">Global mine production of natural graphite grows at a CAGR of 11.4% over 2022-2030, with growth accelerating in Southern Africa and Australia<br /><br /></li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">About 50% of the upstream natural graphite market is currently dominated by four players, with China accounting for over a third of global supply<br /><br /></li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The upstream graphite industry is expected to be the most successful in diversifying away from China, denoting also a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage versus its synthetic counterpart due to both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations<br /><br /></li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The upstream natural graphite market sees a very strong penetration of new entrants, projected to account for almost half of global mined supply by 2030; in contrast, the share of China-owned assets falls by about 17 percentage points</li>
</ul>
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<p id="_com_1" language="JavaScript"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img alt="Chart" height="402" width="593" src="https://cdn.aglty.io/stratas-advisors/upload/graphite_markt.PNG" /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; margin-bottom: 0in;"><em>Subscribers&nbsp;can&nbsp;</em><em><a href="~/members/upstream-natural-graphite-market-assessment/2023-02-13t000000-0500" target="_self">access the full report</a></em><em>&nbsp;from Stratas Advisors'&nbsp;<a href="~/services/renewable---alternative-fuels/cleantech-and-battery-supply-chains" target="_self">CleanTech and Battery Supply Chain</a>&nbsp;service.</em><br /><br /></p>
<p style="background-color: white; margin-bottom: 0in;"><strong>Not a subscriber?&nbsp;</strong><strong></strong><a href="https://stratasadvisors.com/Register"><strong>Create an Account</strong></a><strong>.</strong></p>
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Upstream Natural Graphite Market Assessment

<ul>
    <li>Global mine production of natural graphite grows at a CAGR of 11.4% over 2022-2030, with growth accelerating in Southern Africa and Australia<br />
    <br />
    </li>
    <li>About 50% of the upstream natural graphite market is currently dominated by four players, with China accounting for over a third of global supply<br />
    <br />
    </li>
    <li>The upstream graphite industry is expected to be the most successful in diversifying away from China,&nbsp;denoting also a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage versus its synthetic counterpart due to both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations <br />
    <br />
    </li>
    <li>The upstream natural graphite market sees a very strong penetration of new entrants, projected to account for almost half of global mined supply by 2030; in contrast, the share of China-owned assets falls by about 17 percentage points</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With about 540.6 KT of graphite mined in 2022, China accounts for over a third of the global upstream natural graphite market. China has, however, lost significant market share in recent years following the commissioning of large-scale graphite mines elsewhere, especially in Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Australia. In fact, in 2022 Mozambique was the second-largest producer of natural graphite at a market share of 22%, followed by Tanzania (16.2%) and India (8.7%). Currently, only four players supply over half of global natural graphite volumes, with Chinese miners accounting for over a third of global supply. Commissioned in 2019, the Balama mine in Mozambique constitutes the single largest natural graphite operation in the world, with owner Syrah Resources providing for over 21% of global supply in 2022. Australia-based Magnis Energy is the second-largest graphite miner in the world, accounting for about 13.3% of global production through its 220 KT Nachu flake project in Tanzania. Aoyu and China Graphite Group currently supply 8.5% and 6% of global natural graphite respectively through their operations in Heliongjiang province in Northeastern China, where China Minmetals also operates (4.8% market share).</p>
<p><div id="jjrgpmittznpoliganke"></div><p><script src="https://stratas.shooju.com/api/1/views/jjrgpmittznpoliganke.js?element_id=sjview_jjrgpmittznpoliganke&jwt=JWT_TOKEN"></script></p></p>
<p><em>Note: Total volumes and player estimates are based on existing and pending projects at an early or advanced development stage.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Natural graphite supply from Africa is expected to see strong growth over the forecast period following the ramp-up of NextSource Materials&rsquo; Molo flake mine in Madagascar, commissioned in October 2022, to supply 3.8% of the market by 2030, up from a marginal 0.3% in 2022. Tirupati is also expected to significantly contribute to the growth of natural graphite supply from Madagascar through the commissioning of its Sahamamy mine, adding 18 KT/year when fully operational. As recently commissioned mines gradually increase output, smaller players are projected to gain market share. In particular, Battery Minerals&rsquo; Montepuez mine in Mozambique and Walkabout Resources&rsquo; Lindi Jumbo mine in Tanzania are projected to reach a market share of 1% respectively, with Ecograf in Tanzania supplying an additional 0.5%. In Namibia, Northern Graphite is planning to restart its Okanjande-Okorusu mine by 2024 to supply 31 KT/year in a first phase, growing to about 100-150 KT/year by 2030. Triton Minerals will also reach a market share of 1.5% by 2030 as it develops its greenfield Ancuabe mine in Mozambique. Australia-based Black Rock Mining Ltd is however expected to become the market leader in Africa through its greenfield 335 KT Mahenge mine in Tanzania, supplying 8.5% of total natural graphite volumes by 2030 (over half of Tanzanian supply). Uganda and Malawi are also expected to see the first volumes of natural graphite produced domestically from 2025-2026 onwards through the greenfield mines developed by Blencowe Resources and Sovereign Metals, which plan to add a combined volume of 270 KT annually when fully operational.</p>
<p>
Australia began production of natural graphite in 2014 in Quantum's Uley mine in South Australia, but domestic output only started to be boosted in late 2022 with the start-up of the Springdale and the Munglilup mines owned and operated by Comet Resources and Mineral Commodities respectively. Over the coming decade, Australia is expected to see total produced volumes exceed 600 KT/year as greenfield projects expand across the country in addition to Uley&rsquo;s brownfield expansion. In particular, Hexagon Resources is expected to become a global market leader upon completion of its McIntosh mine in Western Australia, adding about 340 KT/year to the global market by 2030 to reach a market share of 8.5%. New entrants into the Australian upstream graphite market are projected to add an additional 140 KT to the global market annually, or 3.7% of total supply.<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p>
<p>North American natural graphite production is currently centered in Canada, estimated to have produced 22.5 KT in 2022 (1.4% of global supply) from Northern Graphite&rsquo;s Lac des Iles mine in Quebec and Eagle Graphite&rsquo;s Black Crystal project in British Columbia. By 2030, Canada&rsquo;s graphite supply is projected to grow eight-fold as greenfield projects in Quebec (Nouveau Monde&rsquo;s Matawinie) and Ontario (Northern Graphite&rsquo;s Bisset Creek and Zenyalta&rsquo;s Albany projects) produce an additional 180 KT/year. Graphite projects are also expected to emerge in the US with Graphite One targeting exploitation in Alaska (60 KT/year) and Westwater Resources developing operations in Alabama towards the end of the decade to produce a total of 73 KT/year. By 2030, Stratas Advisors forecasts North America to supply 8.9% of global natural graphite production. Latin America, with graphite extraction centered mainly in Brazil, sees volumes double with the brownfield expansion of RHI&rsquo;s Almenara mine in Minas Gerais and the addition of South Star&rsquo;s Santa Cruz mine in the Brazilian state of Bahia. By 2030, Brazil is expected to account for 5.3% of global supply.</p>
<p>In Europe, graphite production will mainly be limited to brownfield expansions in Norway and Sweden by Mineral Resources and Talga Resources respectively &ndash; with the entire continent supplying a marginal 2.1% of the global total in 2030. In Ukraine, Volt Resources plans to triple the capacity of its existing Zavalievsky mine &ndash; yet any potential expansion may be subject to significant delays depending on the duration of the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>With graphite demand expected to grow exponentially for the production of active anode material, the upstream market shows strong fragmentation in the coming years, with supply strongly shifting away from the historical dominance of China. In fact, natural graphite additions in China are exclusively attributable to Xinghe Jingxin&rsquo;s Bayannur greenfield mine in Inner Mongolia, projected to increase global supply by 100 KT annually. In particular, Southern Africa is on track to become the world&rsquo;s leader in natural graphite production absorbing almost half of total volumes produced globally, with Tanzania leading at a market share of 17.2% and followed by Mozambique (11.9%), Madagascar (5.7%), Malawi (4.5%), Namibia (3.6%), and Uganda (2.6%).</p>
<p>While graphite supply may remain tight in the medium term, large-scale projects are expected to reach their full capacity by 2030 and beyond, potentially alleviating supply shortage risks and slightly pushing down upward pricing trends. With over half of global synthetic graphite production currently produced in China, the development of graphite mining projects elsewhere also denotes a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage, reflecting both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations versus its synthetic counterpart. Notably, and unlike most other battery material markets, the graphite industry is expected to be more successful in diversifying away from China; in fact, China&rsquo;s natural graphite upstream industry sees a significant decline in market share from 33.7% in 2022 to 16.8% by 2030.</p>

<hr />
<p>Global production of natural graphite grew marginally in 2022, though the full-year projection for 2023 anticipates a stronger increase of 4.3% year-on-year. China currently accounts for over a third of the global upstream natural graphite market; however, China has lost significant market share in recent years following the commissioning of large-scale graphite mines elsewhere, especially in Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Australia. Commissioned in 2019, the Balama mine in Mozambique constitutes the single largest natural graphite operation in the world, with owner Syrah Resources providing for over 21% of global supply in 2022. Tanzania&rsquo;s largest operating asset is located at Lindi, with owner Magnis Energy accounting for over 13% of global production. Aoyu and China Graphite Group currently supply a combined 14.5% of global natural graphite through their operations in Heliongjiang province in Northeastern China, where China Minmetals also operates.</p>
<p>With graphite demand expected to grow exponentially for the production of active anode material, the upstream market shows strong fragmentation in the coming years, with supply strongly shifting away from the historical dominance of China. In fact, natural graphite additions in China are exclusively attributable to the Bayannur greenfield mine in Inner Mongolia. In contrast, Southern Africa is on track to become the world&rsquo;s leader in natural graphite production absorbing almost half of total volumes produced globally, with Tanzania leading at a market share of 17.2%. While graphite supply may remain tight in the medium term, large-scale projects are expected to reach their full capacity by 2030 and beyond, potentially alleviating supply shortage risks and slightly pushing down upward pricing trends. With over half of global synthetic graphite production currently produced in China, the development of graphite mining projects elsewhere also denotes a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage, reflecting both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations versus its synthetic counterpart. Notably, and unlike most other battery material markets, the graphite industry is expected to be more successful in diversifying away from China; in fact, China&rsquo;s natural graphite upstream industry sees a significant decline in market share from about 34% in 2022 to roughly 17% by 2030.</p>
<p>This report is part of a series covering all segments of the EV supply chain, and contains strategic insights on growth projections and production trends across major markets and 50+ players, outlining key investments which help shape estimates on annual supply through 2030.</p>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript"><strong style="font-size: 14px;">Key takeaways:</strong></div>
<div id="_com_1" language="JavaScript"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></div>
<ul>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">Global mine production of natural graphite grows at a CAGR of 11.4% over 2022-2030, with growth accelerating in Southern Africa and Australia</li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">About 50% of the upstream natural graphite market is currently dominated by four players, with China accounting for over a third of global supply</li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The upstream graphite industry is expected to be the most successful in diversifying away from China, denoting also a growing tendency to boost natural graphite usage versus its synthetic counterpart due to both cost advantages and ESG/GHG considerations</li>
<li id="_com_1" language="JavaScript">The upstream natural graphite market sees a very strong penetration of new entrants, projected to account for almost half of global mined supply by 2030; in contrast, the share of China-owned assets falls by about 17 percentage points</li>
</ul>