Stratas Energy Perspectives
MACRO-LEVEL

Stratas Energy Demand Model

Stratas Advisors’ Energy Demand Model is an interactive tool that allows the user to develop comprehensive ground-up forecasts of annual global energy demand. The model includes historical data and the modeled output for the reference scenario developed by Stratas Advisors.

The model generates outputs through a combination of econometric modeling techniques and fundamental analysis, and was created to facilitate transparency and usability. The Stratas Energy Demand Model is directly available to clients through licensing arrangements, and alternatively its outputs and use for scenarios can be accessed through consulting engagements.  Please contact us for a demo or more information.

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Key Highlights:

  • Global annual energy demand forecasting to 2050.
  • Demand broken down to 124 geographies, each split by 21 sectors and 38 fuels.
  • Road sector demand split by fuel and vehicle type at country-level.
  • Fast, intuitive user interface.

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The model incorporates a very high level of granularity, including detail at the country level:

  • 124 countries and roll-up regions.
  • 38 energy types.
  • Each country is broken down into 21 economic sectors, forecasted individually.
    • Within each sector, energy demand is broken down into its component energy types
  • CO2 emissions by fuel and sector are also available.
  • User-modifiable inputs support development of forecast scenarios.
  • The Energy Demand Model uses country-level vehicle fleet forecast data to calculate road sector energy demand by fuel and by type of vehicle.
    • The model also directly forecasts annual miles driven per vehicle for each vehicle type.
    • The user has the ability to easily and quickly modify expected penetration rates of alternative vehicles.
  • Historical data starting from 1995.
  • Total energy demand within each sector is driven by macroeconomic drivers; the fuel mix within each sector is driven by price differentials, policy assumptions and structural inputs.
  • The model uses 11 macroeconomic/environmental drivers, including GDP, population, employment, air passengers, degree days and port traffic.

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Who uses this service and how do they use it?

Upstream Operators
Respond nimbly to market volatility.
Refiners Maximize margins and spot opportunities.
Infrastructure Developers
Identify opportunities resulting from fluctuations higher up and farther down the energy value chain.
Equipment Suppliers & Service Providers
Anticipate market conditions that could cause your clients to shift strategy.
Logistics and Transportation
Map out contingencies to avoid potential disruptions from changing fuel prices.
Traders & Financial Institutions
Understand key price drivers and anticipate opportunities.
Energy & Feedstock Consumers Get input for sourcing and hedging programs.